Dairy Information: Protecting Your Profits

The Center for Dairy Excellence offers several information resources to help producers identify opportunities to protect their profits. These documents are reviewed on a monthly “Protecting Your Profits” conference call. Click here herehttp://centerfordairyexcellence.adobeconnect.com/pxmibshlgwna/ to access the latest “Protecting Your Profits” Webinar.

Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Scorecard: The Center for Dairy Excellence publishes a monthly “PA Dairy Industry Performance Scorecard,” which looks at key factors supporting the growth of Pennsylvania’s dairy industry and evaluates trends affecting Pennsylvania’s dairy farms.

  • Dairy cow numbers in Pa are stable at 525,000 cows while the national herd seems to have plateaued at  9.4 million cows.
  • The Commonwealth’s rolling monthly milk production again grew slightly, to 10.96 billion pounds of milk in October.
  • Total production in the Commonwealth grew .7% over last October. National production grew 1.4%
  • Pennsylvania’s production per cow grew to 63.4 pounds per cow per day, a .9%increase from last October. National  production grew to 70.2 pounds per day, a .67% increase.
  • PA’s DHI herd average has plateaued just over 22,400 pounds of milk per cow.
  • These Pa DHI herds averaged 1555 pounds of of total fat and protein with more than  37% of the herds producing at least 1650 pounds of total components.
  • October milk prices that were $.90 above than last October.Feed costs were 12% lower, netting margins that were $1.50 above last year.
  • Somatic cell counts were higher than last year but similar to 2014 & 2015.
  • Average days in milk are falling seasonally.
  • Pregnancy rates are 1.4% above last October.
  • The average calving age has fallen to 25 months. Almost half of Pennsylvania’s DHI herds have a calving age between 21 & 24 months!
  • DHI left herd values are similar to the past four Octobers.

US Dairy Industry ScorecardTo provide an overview the national dairy industry, with consumption, marketing and production trends, the center publishes the monthly “US Dairy Industry Performance” scorecard.

  • The September/October MPP  margin is $9.99619.
  • The Pennsylvania MPP margin, calculated with NASS  values for milk, corn, alfalfa hay, and a soybean meal value of + $40.00 over the MPP value was $9.8347 in the most recent period.
  • September slaughter numbers are very similar to the past three Septembers.
  • Butter stocks are 4.5% below last September, but well above 2014 & 2015 levels. Domestic butter demand and production continues to be strong.
  • Domestic cheese stocks are 5.7% larger than last September. Their 12 month rolling average is 8% above the three year average.
  • Nonfat Dry milk inventories are 48% larger than they were a year ago.
  • CME butter prices are continue to be strong historically,but they are well under other world markets.
  • Cheddar Cheese prices on the CME are similar to last year, but under other world prices.
  • Domestic nonfat dry milk powder prices continue to trade very close to the other world markets.
  • The value of U.S. dairy exports is 17% more than last September. The rolling 12-month average is 2% larger than the 3-year average. 14.2% of domestic production lest the U.S. borders so far this year.

Alan Zepp, the center’s risk management program manager, reviews both of these scorecards monthly during his “Protecting Your Profits” calls. The calls are held the last Wednesday of every month. Click here to access a recording of the latest call.