Dairy Information: Protecting Your Profits

The Center for Dairy Excellence offers several information resources to help producers identify opportunities to protect their profits. These documents are reviewed on a monthly “Protecting Your Profits” conference call. Click here  to access the latest “Protecting Your Profits” Webinar.

Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Scorecard:The Center for Dairy Excellence publishes a monthly “PA Dairy Industry Performance Scorecard,” which looks at key factors supporting the growth of Pennsylvania’s dairy industry and evaluates trends affecting Pennsylvania’s dairy farms.

  • The number of dairy cows in the U.S. is  at the 3-year average while Pennsylvania is 1.8 % below the most recent 3-year average.
  • The Pennsylvania herd fell from 525,000 cows to 516,000 in the past year.
  • Pennsylvania’s milking herd averaged 61.7 pounds per cow per day,down from 63.4 last October.
  • National production per cow is 70.9 pounds per day for milking cows, a .8 pound per cow per day increase from last October. Total U.S. milk production in October was .7 percent above last year.
  • PA’s DHI herd average fell to 22,328 pounds of milk with 1538 pounds of components. This is a .4 percent decrease in milk production and 1.1 percent drop in components compared to last October.
  • The September milk margin at 75 pounds of production climbed over $11.00 for the first time since June with similar milk price and feed costs.
  • Somatic Cell counts are 6 percent higher than last year.
  • The average days in milk on the typical Pennsylvania dairy was 1 day more than last year, similar to 2016 values.
  • Pregnancy rates are comparable to last October.
  • Average calving age is now 24.9 months, 18 days shorter than three years ago.
  • DHI cull rates are 38.5 percent,higher than recent September values.

US Dairy Industry Scorecard:To provide an overview the national dairy industry, with consumption, marketing and production trends, the center publishes the monthly “US Dairy Industry Performance” scorecard.

  • The September 2018 MPP Margin is $8.25757
  • The Pennsylvania MPP margin, calculated with NASS values for milk, corn, alfalfa hay, and a soybean meal value of + $40.00 over the MPP value was $7.91180 for the same time period.
  • Dairy cow slaughter numbers are 10 percent above last year. The rolling twelve month average of dairy cows slaughtered is 4 percent larger than the 3-year average.
  • Butter stocks are 5.9 percent larger than October 2017.
  • Domestic cheese stocks are 8 percent larger than last October and the rolling one year average is 5 percent larger than the three-year average.
  • Domestic Nonfat Dry milk inventories fell 18 percent since last year, but the 12 month rolling average is 13 percent above the 3 year average.
  • CME butter prices are 2 % below than last October, still trading significantly lower than other world markets.
  • Federal order Cheddar Cheese prices are 9 percent lower than last September.
  •  U.S. dairy export volumes in the third quarter of 2018 were up 10 percent due to strong powder sales.

Alan Zepp, the center’s risk management program manager, reviews both of these scorecards monthly during his “Protecting Your Profits” calls. The calls are held the last Wednesday of every month. Click here to access a recording of the latest call.