Dairy Information: Protecting Your Profits

The Center for Dairy Excellence offers several information resources to help producers identify opportunities to protect their profits. These documents are reviewed on a monthly “Protecting Your Profits” conference call. Click here herehttp://centerfordairyexcellence.adobeconnect.com/pxmibshlgwna/ to access the latest “Protecting Your Profits” Webinar.

Pennsylvania Dairy Industry Scorecard: The Center for Dairy Excellence publishes a monthly “PA Dairy Industry Performance Scorecard,” which looks at key factors supporting the growth of Pennsylvania’s dairy industry and evaluates trends affecting Pennsylvania’s dairy farms.

  • Dairy cow numbers in Pa are stable at 525,000 cows while the national herd continues to plateau at 9.4 million cows.
  • The Commonwealth’s rolling monthly milk production continues to grow. 10.981 billion pounds of milk in January.
  • Total production in the Commonwealth grew 1.3% year over year since last January. National production grew 1.2%
  • Pennsylvania’s production per cow grew to 66.4 pounds per cow per day, .9 pounds more than last January. National production grew to 72.7 pounds per day, also a .9 pound increase.
  • PA’s DHI herd average fell slightly to 22,463 pounds of milk and 1557 pounds of total fat and protein in January. More than 38% of the herds produced at least 1650 pounds of total components.
  • The January All Milk Price fell about $1.50 from last year. Feed costs were down $.50 per cow, netting margins that were $.75 per hundredweight under last year.
  • The average somatic cell count in PA fell below 200,000 again although it is slightly higher than last year.
  • Average days in milk continue to drop. Three days less than last year and a week less than 2016.
  • Pregnancy rates have held at 20.5% for the past four Januarys.
  • 56% of Pennsylvania’s DHI herds have a calving age between 21 & 24 months!
  • Cull rates did not climb much, but 37.1% is the highest rate since January 2013.

US Dairy Industry ScorecardTo provide an overview the national dairy industry, with consumption, marketing and production trends, the center publishes the monthly “US Dairy Industry Performance” scorecard.

  • The November/December MPP  margin is $9.87485
  • The Pennsylvania MPP margin, calculated with NASS values for milk, corn, alfalfa hay, and a soybean meal value of + $40.00 over the MPP value was $9.2514 for the same time period.
  • January slaughter numbers jumped to the highest monthly number since January 2013.
  • Butter stocks are 1.4 percent larger than last January but the average of 2017 butter stocks is 8 percent more than the three year average of these monthly stocks.
  • Domestic cheese stocks continue to grow. They are 6.9 % larger than last January and 7.4% higher than the 2017 average compared to the three year average.
  • Nonfat Dry milk inventories are 45% larger than they were a year ago.
  • CME butter prices are 30 % under last January. CME butter prices are still trading significantly lower than other world markets
  • Cheddar Cheese prices on the CME are six percent under last year, very close to the three-year average price.
  • Nonfat dry milk powder prices in the U.S. are thirty-five percent below last December.
  •  U.S. dairy exports increased 14% by value in 2017 in spite of the large dairy product inventories in Europe..

Alan Zepp, the center’s risk management program manager, reviews both of these scorecards monthly during his “Protecting Your Profits” calls. The calls are held the last Wednesday of every month. Click here to access a recording of the latest call.